| Barbara Heinzen, PhD | |||||
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| Home > Consultancy > Anticipating crises | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Most people who work in scenario planning carry a ‘watching brief’ of possibilities that interest and worry them. • Is it possible, for example, that climate change will become a global emergency in the next five years? Will we all be put on a ‘war-footing’ to reduce greenhouse gas emissions?
• Will global financial systems become unstable because they are too open and too interconnected? • Will George W. Bush’s administration leave a legacy of executive control that tips into totalitarian excess, or will American society ‘self-correct’? • Will we see widespread famine in India and China as rapid industrial growth undermines agriculture and the ecosystems on which it depends? • What new energy systems will replace oil, which is already a ‘transitional resource’? In an earlier assignment with the Dutch government, a crisis was defined as something which challenges the fundamental values and organisation of society. Such challenges appear to be growing all the time. But how many businesses, government departments and voluntary organisations are preparing for crises? What might such preparation entail? In recent years, Barbara Heinzen has noted the absence of business and government people from meetings that keep them engaged with outside perspectives. She believes that the drive to have leaner work forces has killed off speculative, inventive time in organisations. This is a risky development because it reduces an organisation’s ability to anticipate radical change. It also reduces access to the people who might unexpectedly help to manage the crises of the future. |
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| © Barbara Heinzen, 2006. All rights reserved. |